India’s Road to WTC Final: Scenarios for Qualification after Perth Win

India's commanding 295-run victory over Australia in the Perth Test has given them a significant boost in their quest to qualify for the 2025 World Test Championship Final. The win pushed India to the top of the WTC points table, with Australia slipping to second. However, South Africa’s recent victory over Sri Lanka has altered the equation, moving the Proteas to second place and pushing Australia to third.

With three months remaining in the current WTC cycle, the race for the top two spots remains highly competitive, with India, Australia, South Africa, New Zealand, and Sri Lanka all in contention. India’s chances of making it to the final, which seemed slim after a 3-0 defeat to New Zealand, have revived, but they still face tough challenges.

Key Scenarios for India’s Qualification:

• Comprehensive Series Win: If India wins their ongoing series against Australia by a margin of 3-0 or 3-1, they will secure qualification for the final, provided South Africa does not beat Sri Lanka in their ongoing series. A 3-1 victory for India would also see them qualify if South Africa fails to win the second Test against Sri Lanka, even if they draw.

• India Wins 3-1, Needs Sri Lanka's Help: If India wins 3-1 but Sri Lanka loses to South Africa in the second Test, India’s qualification becomes uncertain. India would need Sri Lanka to secure at least a draw in their series against Australia in Sri Lanka, starting January 29. This is feasible, as the series will be played at Galle, a venue where Sri Lanka are nearly unbeatable.

• Draw or 2-2 Result: A 2-2 draw in the Border-Gavaskar series would significantly reduce India’s chances. In this case, they would need South Africa to beat Sri Lanka 2-0 and Sri Lanka to defeat Australia 1-0 in their two-match series in Sri Lanka.

• 2-3 Loss to Australia: Even a 2-3 loss to Australia could still keep India in the hunt, but a series of other results would need to go in their favor, including a 1-1 draw in the New Zealand-England series, and a 1-1 draw for South Africa against Sri Lanka and Pakistan.

As the WTC cycle continues, India’s qualification for the final will depend on their own performance, as well as the outcomes of crucial matches involving South Africa, Sri Lanka, and Australia. The road to Lord's remains uncertain, but a lot can still change in the next few months.