Indian Stock Market Weekly Outlook: Key Changes to Watch

The Indian stock market faces a cautious start this week, with Gift Nifty trading at 23,495, signalling a potential negative opening. Weakness in global cues, including Wall Street's recent slide and subdued Asian markets, further dampens investor sentiment.

Global Market Trends
Last week, the US stock markets fell sharply, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq experiencing their steepest one-day losses in two weeks. Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq closed the week lower by 1.24%, 2.08%, and 3.15%, respectively. Concerns over slower rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and strong retail sales data have bolstered the US dollar, extending its bull run for a sixth week in seven.

Domestic Performance
Indian equity indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, ended last week lower, with Nifty registering a 2.55% decline for the second consecutive week. Persistent outflows by foreign investors, geopolitical concerns, and rising safe-haven assets continue to weigh on the markets.

Key Triggers This Week
Global Macroeconomic Data: Investors will track Japan’s inflation data and China’s loan prime rate decisions.
Oil and Dollar Trends: Brent crude traded lower at $70.95 per barrel amid weak Chinese demand, while the dollar index remains strong at 106.73.
Domestic Developments: Focus on Maharashtra elections, bond yield trends, and corporate earnings from India Inc.

Sectoral Highlights
CLSA’s recent report favours India over China, increasing its India allocation to 20% overweight due to relative FX stability and domestic appetite for equities. Additionally, Samsung’s massive $7.2 billion share buyback announcement has sparked optimism in Asian markets.

Market Outlook
According to HDFC Securities, Nifty 50 could trade within the 23,338-24,099 range, with a potential rebound in sight. However, macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical risks could keep volatility elevated.
Investors are advised to remain cautious and focus on sectors resilient to global volatility.