Japan's Ruling Party to Elect Successor to Prime Minister Kishida Today

Tokyo:Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will elect its new leader today, with a record nine candidates vying for the position. One of these candidates will succeed the outgoing Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. The prominent candidates include Shigeru Ishiba, Shinjiro Koizumi, Sanae Takaichi, Yoshimasa Hayashi, and Takayuki Kobayashi. Former banker Ishiba is competing for leadership for the fifth time.

There is little expectation that any candidate will secure a majority in the first round, so the top two vote-getters will proceed to a second round.

Political analysts in Japan believe that Shinjiro Koizumi, the son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, has been a potential candidate for the top position since his election to parliament in 2009. If elected, he would become Japan's youngest Prime Minister at the age of 43. Sanae Takaichi, 63, currently serves as the Minister of Economic Security and is known for her strong conservative stance, being a protégé of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

According to Japan Today, the election is limited to LDP lawmakers and members who have paid their dues. The LDP holds a majority in parliament, making the winner the likely next Prime Minister of Japan. Two women are also competing in the election.

Experts suggest that the winner must quickly gain the public's trust; otherwise, Japan may fall back into a cycle of short-lived governments.

Election Process

Voting is restricted to LDP lawmakers and 1.1 million grassroots members, comprising less than one percent of the country's eligible voters. Due to divided votes, no candidate is expected to receive a majority in the first round, so the winner will likely be determined in a runoff between the top two candidates.

These votes are crucial for the ruling party. Analysts believe that this election could signal a return to an era reminiscent of the early 2000s.

Media Polls Favor Ishiba

All nine candidates are current or former cabinet ministers. Former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba consistently ranks first in media polls. Environmental Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, the son of popular former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, ranks second. Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi trails slightly in third place. Experts expect that two of these three will advance to the runoff, but predicting the winner is difficult, as the outcome may be influenced by backroom deals among party heavyweights.

Women's Representation in the Lower House

Women make up only 10.3 percent of Japan's lower house of parliament. A report from the Inter-Parliamentary Union, based in Geneva, ranked Japan 163rd out of 190 countries in terms of women's representation. In Japan's patriarchal culture, it is still common for sons to inherit political power from their fathers. Among the nine candidates, five are hereditary politicians.

What's Next?

On October 1, Kishida and his cabinet ministers will resign. Following parliamentary approval, the new leader will form a new cabinet. The current term of the lower house extends until October 2025. Most candidates have indicated that they will call for elections immediately after taking office. Observers expect elections to be held within a few weeks.

Main Opposition Party

The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan is the main opposition party and has seen some victories in local elections this year. On Monday, it elected former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda as its leader.