EU Struggles to Meet Ammo Commitments to Ukraine, Raising Concerns Amidst Russia's Ammunition Advantage

The European Union (EU) is on the verge of fulfilling its promise to supply Ukraine with one million artillery shells, a target initially set for March 2024 but delayed due to production setbacks. EU diplomat Josep Borrell confirmed that over 980,000 rounds have already been delivered, with the milestone nearing completion by year’s end.Despite this, concerns remain about the adequacy of these supplies in light of Russia’s overwhelming artillery production capacity.

While NATO's combined defence budget stands at a staggering $1.47 trillion, Russia, with a defence budget of just $100 billion, has significantly outpaced the West in artillery production. Moscow is believed to be producing over 3 million artillery shells annually, twice the combined output of the EU and US, allowing Russia to fire upwards of 10,000 rounds per day. In contrast, Ukraine’s output remains considerably lower, averaging only 2,000 rounds per day.
The reliance on artillery has become even more critical in this war of attrition, where Western air superiority is mitigated by advanced air defences, and precision-guided munitions face limitations.

The EU and US are attempting to catch up by ramping up production, but Russia’s historical focus on artillery, rooted in Soviet military doctrine, gives it a significant advantage in sustaining its efforts over time.
In response, both Ukraine and Western allies are stepping up their production capacities. The US aims to produce 100,000 shells monthly by 2025, and Ukraine has begun serial production of 155mm rounds with support from European partners like Rheinmetall. Despite these efforts, the sheer volume required to keep pace with Russia’s daily artillery expenditure remains a daunting challenge.

As artillery remains a decisive factor in the Ukraine war, both sides face a test of endurance in an industrial conflict where ammunition production is key to sustaining operations on the front lines.